close
close
gmask

Presidential Election Battle Ground States and Early Voting 2024 Results

Irishu
Presidential Election Battle Ground States and Early Voting 2024 Results

Electoral College Ratings

NBC News’ Decision Desk characterizes the competitiveness of many of the races to be held in November. Several factors are considered in determining the ratings, including historical electoral results, election polling, analysis of voter registration data and early voting (when applicable), political advertising data, as well as qualitative assessments of the specific candidates.

Battleground states

Arizona

Presidential results, 1992-2020

Percentage point margin

year winning party Margin
1992 Republican Party 2%
1996 Democratic Party 2.2%
2000 Republican Party 6.3%
2004 Republican Party 10.5%
2008 Republican Party 8.5%
2012 Republican Party 9.1%
2016 Republican Party 3.5%
2020 Democratic Party 0.3%
Biden won by 0.3 pts in 2020

Why it’s important

Donald Trump won Arizona in 2016 by nearly 4 percentage points, but lost the state to Joe Biden in 2020 by less than half a percentage point. Polls this year have found Trump and Kamala Harris locked in a statistical tie.

Georgia

Presidential results, 1992-2020

Percentage point margin

year winning party Margin
1992 Democratic Party 0.6%
1996 Republican Party 1.2%
2000 Republican Party 11.7%
2004 Republican Party 16.6%
2008 Republican Party 5.2%
2012 Republican Party 7.8%
2016 Republican Party 5.1%
2020 Democratic Party 0.2%
Biden won by 0.2 pts in 2020

Why it’s important

Donald Trump won Georgia in 2016 by about 5 percentage points, but lost there to Joe Biden in 2020 by less than 12,000 votes. The race this year is a toss-up, with Trump and Harris locked in a statistical tie in polls.

Michigan

Presidential results, 1992-2020

Percentage point margin

year winning party Margin
1992 Democratic Party 7.4%
1996 Democratic Party 13.2%
2000 Democratic Party 5.1%
2004 Democratic Party 3.4%
2008 Democratic Party 16.5%
2012 Democratic Party 9.5%
2016 Republican Party 0.2%
2020 Democratic Party 2.8%
Biden won by 2.8 pts in 2020

Why it’s important

Donald Trump won Michigan in 2016, surprising Democrats in a state Republicans hadn’t won since 1988. Joe Biden won there in 2020 – besting Trump by 3 percentage points. With Kamala Harris and Trump in a statistical tie, it is a “toss-up” headed into Election Day.

Nebraska District 2

Presidential results, 1992-2020

Percentage point margin

year winning party Margin
1992 Republican Party 17.2%
1996 Republican Party 18.7%
2000 Republican Party 29%
2004 Republican Party 33.2%
2008 Republican Party 14.9%
2012 Republican Party 21.8%
2016 Republican Party 25%
2020 Republican Party 19.1%
Trump won by 19.1 pts in 2020

Why it’s important

Nebraska awards one Electoral College vote each to its two congressional districts, and the 2nd District has split from the rest of the reliably conservative state. Donald Trump won the district in 2016, but lost it to Joe Biden in 2020. The district is leaning in polls toward the Democrat Kamala Harris this year.

Nevada

Presidential results, 1992-2020

Percentage point margin

year winning party Margin
1992 Democratic Party 2.6%
1996 Democratic Party 1%
2000 Republican Party 3.5%
2004 Republican Party 2.6%
2008 Democratic Party 12.5%
2012 Democratic Party 6.7%
2016 Democratic Party 2.4%
2020 Democratic Party 2.4%
Biden won by 2.4 pts in 2020

Why it’s important

The Senate race in Nevada is between Democratic incumbent Jacky Rosen and Republican Sam Brown, a military veteran who the party hopes can ride Republican support in the presidential election to a victory in a swing state.

north carolina

Presidential results, 1992-2020

Percentage point margin

year winning party Margin
1992 Republican Party 0.8%
1996 Republican Party 4.7%
2000 Republican Party 12.8%
2004 Republican Party 12.4%
2008 Democratic Party 0.3%
2012 Republican Party 2%
2016 Republican Party 3.7%
2020 Republican Party 1.3%
Trump won by 1.3 pts in 2020

Why it’s important

North Carolina hasn’t voted for a Democrat for president since 2008, but Kamala Harris’ campaign has targeted it as a state she can win, buoyed by its large Black population. Donald Trump won there in 2016 by 3 percentage points and in 2020 by 1 percentage point.

pennsylvania

Presidential results, 1992-2020

Percentage point margin

year winning party Margin
1992 Democratic Party 9%
1996 Democratic Party 9.2%
2000 Democratic Party 4.2%
2004 Democratic Party 2.5%
2008 Democratic Party 10.3%
2012 Democratic Party 5.4%
2016 Republican Party 0.7%
2020 Democratic Party 1.2%
Biden won by 1.2 pts in 2020

Why it’s important

Pennsylvania is emerging as the most critical battleground state in the 2024 election. Donald Trump won the state by less than 1 percentage point in 2016 and lost it by about 1 percentage point in 2020. Kamala Harris has remained competitive there, and the state is classified as a “toss-up.”

Wisconsin

Presidential results, 1992-2020

Percentage point margin

year winning party Margin
1992 Democratic Party 4.4%
1996 Democratic Party 10.3%
2000 Democratic Party 0.2%
2004 Democratic Party 0.4%
2008 Democratic Party 13.9%
2012 Democratic Party 6.8%
2016 Republican Party 0.8%
2020 Democratic Party 0.6%
Biden won by 0.6 pts in 2020

Why it’s important

Wisconsin is a “toss-up” battleground state that has swung between Democrats and Republicans. Donald Trump won there in 2016 by less than 1 percentage point. Joe Biden won there in 2020, also by less than 1 percentage point.

National Early Voting

474,879 mail-in and early in-person votes cast nationally

Filter by:

Registered Democrats

Registered Republicans

Others

Data not available

13,345,313 mail-in and early in-person votes requested nationally

Filter by:

Registered Democrats

Registered Republicans

Others

Data not available

Last updated Oct. 1. Party registration is based on a combination of state-provided partisanship (when available) and TargetSmart’s model of party affiliation. Nationally, the total number of early votes is an aggregation of the daily state totals sourced from TargetSmart and state officials.Data provided by

Past Presidential Election Results

Electoral College Results, 1992-2020

1992B. ClintonGHW Bush

Vote Margin by State in the 2020 Presidential Election

Circle size represents the number electoral votes in that state.

The expected vote is the total number of votes that are expected in a given race once all votes are counted. This number is an estimate and is based on several different factors, including information on the number of votes cast early as well as information provided to our vote reporters on Election Day from county election officials. The figure can change as NBC News gathers new information.

source: National Election Pool (NEP)