Data guru’s model says this candidate could sweep all 7 swing states in Harris-Trump battle

According to many analysts, the 2024 presidential election depends on seven key swing states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada.

And the respected and closely watched prophetic wizard’s electoral pattern has Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris sweeping them all.

In Sunday’s “Silver Bulletin” Substack post, Nate Silver said his model’s most frequent simulation result, which includes seven swing states, is a sweep for Harris: According to Newsweek.

Harris won all seven swing states 15,273 times out of Silver’s model’s 70,000 simulations conducted Sunday.

Trump won 13,912 of the 70,000 simulations in Silver’s model.

Silver said there’s a roughly 40 percent chance that either Harris or Trump will capture all swing states in this year’s White House race.

When reached for comment by Newsweek on Sunday afternoon, Trump’s communications director, Steven Cheung, sent a link to a forecast on the matter. Polymarket betting site.

This election prediction has Trump winning 290 electoral delegate votes in the Electoral College to Harris’ 248 votes.

Based on bets placed by bookmakers, Polymarket shows Trump winning Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona and Georgia, while Harris wins North Carolina and Nevada.

Silver also said over the weekend that he was “nervous” about Harris’ chances in two critical situations: Newsweek reported.

Appearing on the “Impolitic” podcast, Silver said: “Wisconsin, for example, is a state where the polls have been heavily predicting the Democrats in the last couple of elections. Pennsylvania, look, is a state where Joe Biden is the son of the house, he was born in Scranton. And so is Harris.” This doesn’t exist.”

“Those states would make me nervous,” Silver said, adding that Michigan is relatively “safer.”

Silver said if Harris wins Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, as well as other states seen as safely Democratic, she would garner the 270 votes needed in the Electoral College to win the presidency without needing to win other swing states.