Opta’s supercomputer predicts how many points Champions League teams will need to reach the knockout stages… The Premier League team most likely to finish in eighth place and avoid the play-offs

Opta’s supercomputer has predicted how many points Champions League teams will need to reach the knockout stage of the tournament.

The new ‘Swiss model’ format kicks off on Tuesday night, with Liverpool facing AC Milan and Aston Villa playing their return to Europe’s elite away at Young Boys.

Ahead of tonight’s first six games, Opta’s supercomputer ran 50,000 simulations of the brand new league stage to see how many points teams will need to reach the knockout stages, or play-offs.

The teams that finish the league in the top eight will earn the right to advance to the last 16, while the teams between 9th and 24th will have to participate in the play-offs.

Opta’s Simulations predict that teams with 17 points or more will have a 100 percent chance of finishing in the top eight.

In 98 percent of simulations, 16 points, equivalent to five wins and one draw or four wins and four draws, is likely to secure advancement to the first knockout round.

While 15 points were enough for eighth place in 73 percent of the simulations, 14 points were enough in only 28 percent of the supercomputer’s simulations.

In simulations, Arsenal ranked eighth most critical.

Mikel Arteta’s side have arguably the toughest fixture in the Champions League of the four English sides, facing Europa League champions Atalanta, Paris Saint-Germain, Shakhtar Donestsk, Inter Milan, Sporting Lisbon, Monaco, Dinamo Zagreb and Girona.

Opta’s supercomputer also predicts that 10 points will be enough to qualify for the play-offs, and this is enough in 99 per cent of simulations.

Nine points could be considered sufficient, given that teams use this figure in 69 percent of simulations.

But those with just eight points were only able to qualify for 16 per cent of Opta’s 50,000 attempts into the league stage.

The final play-off spot is likely to be occupied by Celtic, the Scottish champions having last come through the old group stage format in 2012-13, losing to Juventus in the Round of 16.

Manchester City, who have a 25.3 percent chance of reclaiming the trophy, are seen as favourites to win the tournament, according to Opta.

They are followed by Real Madrid with 18.2 percent and Inter Milan with 10.9 percent.

Although Arsenal are likely to finish the league in eighth place, Mikel Arteta’s side are seen as fourth favourites to win the competition with odds of 6.3 per cent.

They are followed by Bayer Leverkusen (5.4%), Barcelona (5.2%), Liverpool (4.2%) and Bayern Munich and PSG (4.1%).

Liverpool and Aston Villa face off tonight, Manchester City host Inter Milan on Wednesday and Arsenal visit Atalanta on Thursday.